Here is the final two-day tracking poll from Zogby (with daily results from prior four days):
44% (45%) (47%) (45%) (44%) Clinton
44% (47%) (46%) (45%) (42%) Obama
_3% _(2%) _(1%) _(3%) _(5%) Someone Else
_8% _(6%) _(5%) _(6%) _(9%) Undecided
Pollster John Zogby notes that the undecideds have increased at the espense of Obama, suggesting that Clinton's attacks have had some effect.
I've just been informed that due to widespread concern among voters over removal of the ballot stub that says "Vote Will Not Be Counted If Removed," the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections will notify poll workers NOT to instruct voters to remove the stub when placing the ballot in the ballot box.
UPDATE: I've just had a conversation with Mark Griffin, an election observer stationed at the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections. He clarifies that the BOE is not instructing poll workers to leave the stub attached per se, but instead instructing the poll workers not to make an issue of whether the stub is removed or not. In other words, if the voter doesn't want to remove the stub because of the confusing "Do Not Remove ..." instruction, then the ballot should just go in the ballot box with the stub still attached. The ballots will be counted whether they have the stub attached or not.
Poor, but not as bad as initially forecast.
David reports on Ohio Valley Politics that some polling places in Jefferson County (along the Ohio River on the eastern border of the state) have been relocated due to flooding concerns, linking to this Steubenville TV news story.
Redhorse reports that Akron is windy and cold (low to mid-30s with rain and freezing rain, perhaps thunder). He speculates that reduced turnout hurts Obama, based on polls indicating that early voting trended toward Clinton, but then wonders if Obama hasn't caught up among absentee voters due to the emphasis on early voting at Obama rallies, and further notes that Obama voters may be more motivated and therefore more weather resistant (so to speak).
Earl in Wood County (northwest Ohio) reports that snow or freezing rain is expected later in the day in Toledo, and possible freezing rain south of Toledo, with the dividing line running diagonally across the northwest corner of the state. Weather radar shows precipitation sliding northeast out of the southwest.
At the moment (about 10:00 AM), it's raw, cold and windy. Temperature of 28 F. Not a fun day to be standing outside of a polling place.
Here is a Get Out The Vote appeal airing in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown. It is produced and paid for by the United Food and Commerical Workers International Union, which endorsed Barack Obama about two weeks ago.
People are confused about the strip or stub along the bottom of the paper ballot that says something like "Do Not Remove Or Vote Will Not Be Counted." When they turn their ballot in after voting, the poll worker removes the stub [or instructs the voter to do so], and the voter then is alarmed about whether the vote will be counted. I have heard reports that the poll workers can be less than clear in explaining what is happening (saying "No, I don't know why" and "Yeah, that confuses us too" and such).
I have confirmed with the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections and with a representative of the Secretary of State that it is proper for the poll worker to remove the stub after the ballot has been marked and handed back to the poll worker. The problem would be if the stub is removed by the voter before marking and returning the ballot. Removal at the time the ballot is placed in the ballot box is proper.
The stub is used to reconcile the ballot book. I'm told that if you look at the ballot box you will see an instruction there to remove the stub and place it in a separate envelope, which is correct. (However, if the ballot is mistakenly placed in the box with the stub still attached, that does not invalidate the ballot -- it will still be counted in that case.)
UPDATE: I've now been referred to the offical poll workers manual, which can be downloaded here (.pdf). Here is the relevant language about removing the stub, which indicates that the voter should remove it (rather than the poll worker) when returning the marked ballot, which appears on page 23:
Make sure the voter removes Stub “A”, places the stub in the Stub “A” Envelope, inserts his/her ballot into the Ballot Box, (the voter must return his/her ballot to the correct precinct’s Ballot Box) returns the marking device and the secrecy sleeve.
I voted today at about 7:20 AM. Turnout was fairly heavy for that hour in my little hamlet in rural Wood County. Three people were in line when I arrived.
But here's what is more interesting: between the time the polling station opened at 6:30 AM, and forty five minutes later when I voted, about six people had filed the declaration to switch sides from one party to the other.
Meanwhile to the north, the chair of the functionally (and literally) bankrupt Lucas County Republican Party has been talking to the media about Republican voters switching sides in order to vote against Hilary Clinton.
If they think that it will be easier to run against Senator Obama over Senator Clinton, then they are even more delusional than I had suspected.
But always remember, Tip O'Neill was right: "all politics ARE local." Some past nominally Democratic voters might be pulling Republican ballots, either to vote for McCain or to vote in the hotly contested Wood county GOP primary for prosecutor, where there are four candidates. There are no Democrats on the ballot for that position (again... /sigh), so just as with our race for sheriff a few years ago, whoever wins the GOP primary, gets the office.
The weather is definitely going to be an issue later on in the day. During the heaviest voting hours this afternoon and early evening, the forecast is for freezing rain and sleet. Currently, it is 30 F. and heavily overcast. The grass is covered with a mix of snow and ice and the back roads in rural areas are "iffy."
Some jurisdictions in the area (Perrysburg, for example) have virtually run out of road salt and cannot get any more from their supplier. However, reports are that what remaining emergency supplies they have on hand, will be used on roads near schools and polling places (often the same thing.)
Which means that if we get any MORE ice storms after today, we are so screwed...
The Wulsin campaign made ID calls
tonight today, connecting with over 2,700 voters. Identified voters were 939 for Wulsin, 42 for Black.
Pretty good ratio.
Arnold's Bar & Grill
210 E 8th St
Cincinnati, OH 45202
After the break are details on Obama results watch parties across the state, just announced by the campaign. These are going on the event calendar as well.
A Retrospective of Barack Obama's Journey Through Ohio.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 at 7:30 PM - 11:00 PM
The Columbus Atheneum
32 North Fourth Street
(Near 4th & Gay)
Columbus, OH 43215
Doors open at 7:30pm.
Freezing rain, snow, sleet ... not good. Here is a Cleveland forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night:
Freezing rain...Snow and sleet in the morning...Then occasional freezing rain and rain in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Brisk with highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Freezing rain or snow or sleet with a chance of rain in the evening...Then snow after midnight. Additional snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Brisk with lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph...Becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Why is the weather always nasty when it's time to vote in Ohio?
Update from Earl: Ain't that the truth! I remember spending one election day in front of the BGSU campus polling place, handing out leaflets with Mike Zickar in sleet and freezing rain. It was a long day.
The weather here in the NW part of the state is already turning bad. Temperatures are falling into the the 30's, and it's raining.
Justin (our newest front pager here at ODB) just asked me what effect I thought that the weather would have. I suspect that it will slightly diminish turnout across the entire northern tier of the state. It's tough to predict who it will tend to favor. But I know that in some places with long outdoor lines, it's gonna be miserable.
David Kurtz points out at TPM that Obama didn't make any appearances in Ohio today and won't be coming tomorrow either. Clinton was in Toledo this morning, flew to Texas, and will be in Ohio tomorrow night if not sooner.
It looks like Obama's bottom line is winning one state and Texas is the one he feels he can lock up. Clinton needs to win two, but if she's only going to win one it's got to be Ohio, because it sets up well for Pennsylvania.
Today I received this Clinton mail piece, which declares in highlighted text that "Barack Obama refused to stand up for union workers" when the Maytag plant in Galesburg, Illinois shut down, and that "a large investor in the company that ran the plant had given nearly $200,000" to Obama's campaigns, clearly implying that Obama deliberately shafted the workers because of the contributions:
For support, the mailer cites this February 2nd story in the Chicago Tribune. What that article says is that union leaders at the Maytag plant are disappointed that Obama didn't personally confront Lester Crown, a director and investor in Maytag, about the plant closing. Crown is a contributor to Obama and his son James is the Illinois finance chairman of the Obama for America campaign. However, the article also states:
1) Obama "did not know Crown sat on Maytag's board until the Tribune noted it last September;" and,
2) "[T]he Maytag workers' union never asked [Obama] to intervene with Crown," Obama "would have done so if they had," but "Union officials said they were unaware of the Crowns' ties to Maytag or to Obama."
So Obama is being slammed for not personally confronting Crown before the plant closed, when Obama didn't know, and the union didn't know either, of Crown's connection to Maytag. Does that justify the charge that Obama "refused to stand up for union workers"? Does it support the inference that Crown influenced Obama with his campaign contributions? Or is it a misleading attack.
In a memo issued today, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe appears to anticipate narrow victories in Ohio and/or Texas by Clinton, urging a sharp focus on delegates rather than victories in primaries:
[N]arrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve [the Clinton campaign's] nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.
While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning. It is a very simple question – what is their path to secure the nomination? No amount of spin can change the math. We look forward to their tortured answers on Wednesday morning.
Plouffe points out in the memo that Clinton strategist Mark Penn wrote on February 13th that the Clinton campaign expected to be "virtually tied" in delegates after March 4th, that Clinton aide Guy Cecil said on February 13th that the Clinton campaign expected to be "within 25 delegates" after March 4th, and Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said on February 11th that he thought Clinton would be ahead in delegates after Ohio and Texas.
Narrow victories in Ohio and/or Texas would leave Clinton campaign still trailing substantially in delegate. The Obama campaign currently figures that he is ahead by 162, CNN shows Obama ahead by 102, and MSNBC shows Obama ahead by 157. Razor-thin victories in Ohio and/or Texas will not deliver enough net delegates to affect the lead.
Another new poll, more support for the notion that Clinton has regained the momentum in Ohio (figures in parens are from 2/28):
50% (47%) Clinton
44% (45%) Obama
6% (9%) Undecided
During the preceding two weeks Rasmussen had shown Clinton at around 47% or 48% while Obama gained steadily from 38% to 45%. Today's poll reverses that trend.
A new poll (.pdf) from Public Policy Polling suggests that the outcome in Ohio may be very different from that in previous hard-fought primary states. “This is the first key state PPP has polled in where Clinton did better the weekend before the election than she was doing ten days out,” writes Dean Debnam, President of PPP. Their poll last week showed Clinton up by only four points, but in this poll she is ahead by 9:
The key finding is that younger voters are not flocking to Obama they way they have in other states. His margin among voters aged 18-29 is just 49% to 46%, and among voters aged 30-45 he is behind 44% to 48%. Clinton's lead among femal voters (54% to 38%) is much greater than Obama's lead among male voters (47% to 46%).
The poll involved 1,112 Democratic likely voters on March 1st and 2nd and has a margin of error of 2.9 points.
I just got a robocall from Gov. Ted Strickland, telling me that in order to turn Ohio around he needs to have Hillary Clinton in the White House. Clinton, he said, is the only candidate who will deliver real solutions to the problems Ohioans face.
Steve Black (D-Indian Hill), reduced to funding his own campaign, has poured his remaining resources into smearing Dr. Victoria Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) with this sleazy fear-bomb of a TV ad:
I'm not aware of any evidence that establishes that Wulsin did anything more than perform a review of literature and clinical trial data as a paid consultant to the Heimlich Institute in 2004, an engagement that was abruptly terminated when she submitted a draft report critical of its experiments involving African AIDS patients with malaria. There is a complaint pending with the Ohio Board of Medicine, filed by a frequent critic of the Heimlich Institute, but it doesn't include any factual substantiation for its claim that Wulsin participated in the African experiments or engaged in a cover-up, and the board has made no finding to that effect. This TV ad amounts to a nasty scare tactic and attempted character assassination by a desperate candidate, and hopefully it will backfire in tomorrow's vote.
Here's a link to my Saturday blog post for Sky News, the international television news network based in London, commenting on campaign calls, volunteers, and ads. I have just submitted another for today,
no link yet and here is the link. (I'm alternating with Dave of NixGuy.com.)
The Obama campaign has revealed a two-minute TV ad that it will run during evening news time slots across Ohio tonight. (View the ad here.) Ohio campaign director Paul Tewes has this to day about the ad:
For the past four weeks, Barack Obama has met with Ohioans in every corner of the state, discussing ways in which we can bring back good paying jobs to Ohio, make health care affordable and accessible for all Americans, and make our trade agreements work for working Americans. Ohio voters will judge candidates based on who has been consistent about standing up to special interests and who is capable of uniting and mobilizing Americans of different viewpoints and backgrounds to finally bring the change this country desperately needs.
UPDATE: The Ohio version of this ad follows exactly the same script as the Texas version, which has different graphics at the beginning:
The script is after the break.
The Clinton campaign has released a new TV ad for the last day before Ohio votes. Ohioans are portrayed saying the economy is horrible and that workers need a leader in the White House. With trumpets playing in the background, Clinton promises to be a "partner" to the American worker and a president who will stand up for the middle class:
The script is after the break.
Blogger DHinMI at DailyKos has been examining FEC filings by outside groups supporting Obama and Clinton and made this discovery (emphasis added):
In Ohio, [AFSCME, the American Federation of Teachers, and Emily's List] have continued the model of what worked well in the early states [in support of Clinton] — lots of direct mail, probably directed at women, followed up with phone calls. In Ohio, they have boosted their program. Whereas in most states they appear to have sent about 6 pieces of mail, it appears that in Ohio their target audience has received up to 8 pieces. They have also run a small amount of media, and are now following up the mail with phone calls. The total expenditures come to about $500,000.
FEC reports indicate that SEIU will probably spend over 5 times as much as AFSCME and EMILY's list in Ohio. They've spent $400,000 in mail, almost matching AFSCME and EMILY's List. In addition to the mail, they have also spent $200,000 on phones, $425,000 on a paid canvass program, and $1.4 million on electronic media. All together, with staff, production and other expenses factored in, SEIU has spent over $2.6 million in Ohio.
The SEIU endorsement of Obama just came in a few weeks ago. Obama didn't have this kind of support on Super Tuesday or in New Hampshire. If Obama defies the latest polls and wins Ohio, the huge expenditures and GOTV effort by SEIU could be the biggest reason.
ABC reports that privately Clinton aides hope for a 3 to 6 point victory in Ohio at best, and a extremely close win in Texas:
Clinton campaign advisors say their own internal polls show the race tightening in Ohio and remaining very close in Texas. ...
In their best case scenario, Clinton aides hope she could win Ohio by 3 to 6 points and squeak out a victory in Texas. They would consider that a good night and reason to fight on to Pennsylvania, which holds its primary on April 22.
Other scenarios, they admit, are not so pretty.
If Clinton wins only one of the two big states, it is much better for her to win Ohio, because Ohio's demographics hold out hope for a similar win in Pennsylvania. However, if she does not win both states, she will face pressure to drop out.
Redhorse is predicting a Clinton win in Ohio and loss in Texas, with a Clinton sweep possible.
The polling is all over the place. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama closing the gap to 4 points, just outside the 3.5 point margin of error and 5 points closer than one week ago:
49% (51%) Clinton
45% (40%) Obama
However, a new poll from Survey USA shows Clinton holding steady with a ten point lead (3.4 point margin of error):