Rasmussen Poll: Obama and McCain Tied in Ohio
Submitted by Jeff on Tue, 05/20/2008 - 7:36am.
A Rasmussen poll released yesterday shows Obama gaining ground in the general election in Ohio, now polling in a statistical tie with McCain (numbers in parens from 4/08 and 3/13):
44% (40%,40%) Obama
45% (47%,46%) McCain
Clinton outperforms Obama against McCain in this poll, now leading 50% to 43% after trailing McCain in the previous polls by margins similar to the Obama-McCain matchups.
There are a variety of issue questions that reveal support for several conservative positions in Ohio, but the bedrock concern of voters is the economy (55%) and Obama leads McCain in that group by 53% to 35%. And look at these numbers on the direction of the country and approval ratings for Strickland and Bush:
Just 13% believe that the United States is generally heading in the right direction while 81% believe the nation has gotten off on the wrong track. ...Forty-eight percent (48%) of Ohio voters say Governor Ted Strickland is doing a good or an excellent job. That’s up three percentage points from a month ago. Just 16% say he is doing a poor job.
President Bush receives much lower grades—only 33% say he is doing a good or excellent job. That’s down seven points from a month ago. While Bush won the White House by capturing a majority of Ohio votes four years ago, most Buckeye State voters (51%) now say the President is doing a poor job.
Rasmussen ranks Ohio as a toss-up state.
Here are a trio of interesting electoral vote analyses, with the bottom line on Ohio: Karl Rove's maps, obtained by ABC News (Obama down in Ohio by 3%, Clinton up by 5%), blogger Poblano at FiveThirtyEight (Obama has a 44% chance of winning Ohio, Clinton has a 79% chance), and Democratic pollster Paul Maslin writing in Salon (Strickland as running mate "may be the only way to prevail" in Ohio). Ohio is close, Ohio is critical, and things can go either way from here. Hang on to your seats.
What is so frightening
Is knowing how critical Ohio is to the eventual winner. What about how Florida and Pennsylvania go? This is why people shake in their boots over the states won by Clinton v. Obama. I hope to get to this observation in more depth later today, but I feel a Paul Hackett kind of push from Obama supporters that doesn't always seem to reflect Obama himself. I've felt it before. Obama's supporters want it almost more than he does, they want to massage and persuade. I understand that. And they want to believe in what a conquerer against all odds he can be - might be. They relish the fight itself almost (and is part of why some don't think Obama should reach out to Clinton voters).
But this is very, very dangerous. Not impossible, and not not worth fighting for. But people who like to take on such challenges have enormous egos and don't always see things as they are.
This is where the fear and the split is coming from.