Rasmussen Poll : Dems Holding Steady Against Portman, Fisher's Unfavorables Still Weighing Him Down
Submitted by Anthony Fossaceca on Mon, 02/08/2010 - 12:05pm.
A new Rasmussen Poll taken over the end of last week doesn't tell us much about who is leading the Democratic Senate primary, but it does point out some possible weaknesses and strengths with Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher.
Fisher and Brunner both trail Portman by 4% points - Fisher down 43%-39% while Brunner is behind 42%-38%.
The favorability test gives the better clues as to who is best positioned to win this fall - including Rob Portman. Overall, voters find Rob Portman more favorable (45%) compared to Brunner (43%) and Fisher (38%). Brunner has the highest "very favorable" number with 18% to Portman's 13% and Fisher's 11%.
Voters view Fisher the least favorable (39%) to Brunner's 32% and Portman's 24%. Portman, who has never run statewide before, has the highest "not sure" response with 32%.
The good news? The unfamiliarity of Rob Portman with voters should only help Democrats as they begin to paint the picture (very easily) of Portman as the architect of the Bush economy and massive trade deficits. Brunner should also be encouraged that she's very competitive with Portman and maintains pretty strong favorables for someone who has been in the public eye for the last four years.
The bad news? Fisher's unfavorables are still a problem. With 39% already aligned against him, the rebound of the economy is critical if he is to appeal to the independents who elected Barack Obama in 2008. The fact that he's been the point person for jobs in Ohio is probably a negative right now. That could change with a quarter of steady or (gasp!) robust economic growth. Without it, it becomes much harder for Fisher to make the case against Portman as the former White House Budget Director will likely try to hammer the Lt. Governor for losing more jobs than creating.
Bottom line? Too early to read too much, but still something worth discussing.
39% unfavorable is bad?
I think if it was above 50% we'd have a problem. Fisher can paint Portman as the reason why jobs are leaving the state in droves.
Also, can we please kill the story about Secretary Brunner being competitive? Sure, people know who she is....if they didn't, we'd have a serious problem. She isn't going to win the primary and even if she had a chance I don't think we'd want her to at this point. Her fundraising has been abysmal. If she does have a message I only know that it is she can't raise money and has no institutional support. This is worse than 2006 because at least then Paul Hackett had the ability to raise money. Brunner has had ample opportunity to raise the required funds for a race and has failed at every turn.
Lee Fisher can do his part too: I think it's time to kneecap her with a serious push. Knock her out of the race and then we can get down to defeating Portman.
It Takes More Than That
It takes more than money to win a primary and a general, which is why Jennifer Brunner is such a strong candidate. She has a strong grassroots network and appeal, which translates to votes. If she succeeds in the primary you will see that the money will follow.
Bull
All the Brunner supporters keep moving the goalposts and declaring victory. First it was, "after she defines herself the money will roll in" and then it was "after she files to be on the ballot the money will roll in" and now its "after she wins the primary the money will roll in."
It takes money to win the primary and the general. She's going to get crushed in the primary (after Fisher starts running full steam - hopefully soon) and she's never going to make it to the general election.
Also, I don't buy her "grassroots" support. When she initially announced her candidacy, I volunteered for her...and didn't hear a thing....for months. Then I got a bunch of last minute fundraising emails and that was it. I even contacted the HQ to offer to help...nada. This crap narrative about her having some major grassroots organization is just that...crap.
If Jennifer Brunner has managed to actually raise more money than she spent, I would have taken her seriously. She didn't. I don't. It's over. The Dems need to come together around Fisher and take on Rob Portman....the sooner the better.
Sorry No Call - But Grassroots Operation is Real
Hey, Ryan, it's Jeff Coryell. I'm the new media director for the Jennifer Brunner Committee.
I'm sorry that you didn't get the response you wanted when you tried to volunteer. We are operating on a shoestring budget and sometimes things do fall through the cracks. Also, in your case part of the problem may have to do with the changeover in outreach personnel early this fall.
In any rate, I can tell you that the grassroots operation is real and is in full swing. Hundreds of volunteers trudged around in the cold and snow to gather 2250 petition signatures from 54 counties in December, January, and February, and hundreds are now calling Ohio voters (many of them from home, using our virtual phonebanking system). And the response is terrific -- among the people we've called, many more like Jennifer Brunner than otherwise.
Our online fundraising really kicked in during the last month of the 4th quarter and its going great now. You are totally right that Jennifer Brunner's opponent has more money than her, but you're wrong that anything's over. This campaign isn't about money, its about people. All Jennifer Brunner needs is to keep her grassroots outreach going, and that phase of the campaign is just now hitting its stride. We're charging into the primary with huge momentum.
How it works
Ryan, I'm not sure you've ever worked on a close campaign but anyone who has will tell you that the grassroots campaign is what makes all the difference and the better/stronger campaign is the one that wins. Yes you need money to run a campaign and to get your message out to voters but that's not all you need and again, that's why Jennifer Brunner is ahead of Lee Fisher (and not just in polls). It's not over, not by a long shot, and any comments posted here won't convince anyone either.
Actually
I managed Marian Harris' successful campaign for the Ohio House in 2008 so I do know a thing or two about close races - we won by 735 votes. I just don't buy that grassroots support can make up a million dollar plus cash advantage. Think about this for a moment: State Rep Marian Harris has more money cash on hand for a state rep race than Secretary Brunner has for a US Senate campaign. This isn't academic. She's going to get squashed.