Obama's Surge

Submitted by Jeff on Thu, 01/31/2008 - 10:22am.

At the Bill Clinton event on Tuesday, reporter Monica Langley of the Wall Street Journal asked me how I thought the Democratic presidential race stood in Ohio. "Clinton is ahead but the ground is shifting under her feet," I replied. "Obama is gaining fast." It's not scientific, but I feel that it is true.

Look at this graphic from yesterday's report on Gallup's three-day national tracking poll:

Clinton's national lead is down to single digits, Obama's trend is steadily upward, and the effect of Edwards dropping out has not yet registered.

Time has an interesting piece about the effect on the race of the remarkable enthusiasm and turnout among young voters:

[Y]oung people are voting in numbers rarely seen since the general election of 1972 — the first in which the voting age was lowered to 18. Obama is both catalyst and beneficiary. In state after state, he has drawn more young voters than any of his competitors. For a group of voters with no memory of a time before Bushes and Clintons, Obama is a fresh face. His opponents promise to fight, but Obama promises healing. His is the language of possibility, which is the native tongue of the young. And if he happens to be light on details — well, what are details but the dull pieces of disassembled dreams? "I had a friend tell me this was impossible, quoting all these political-science statistics at me to show that it's hopeless to try to organize students," says Michelle Stein, 20, media coordinator for Obama's youth campaign in Missouri. "Now he says, 'You were right, I was wrong. Where do I sign up?'"

The idea that young people don't vote is a bedrock of conventional political thinking. But Obama is all about transcending conventional thinking. It's unclear whether this will all work, but if Obama succeeds it may mark not only a transformation of this presidential race but of the dynamics of American politics -- the kind of seismic shift that occurred with Kennedy in 1960 and Reagan in 1980. That's the elusive but tantalizing upside to his candidacy.

Young voters

Submitted by Earl on Thu, 01/31/2008 - 1:49pm.

Jeff asked me to post this and I'm doing so some what reluctantly because I don't want to sound like a wet blanket.

I really hate to say this and I SINCERELY wish things were different, but...

The idea that young people don't vote is a bedrock of conventional political thinking.

The reason being, is that it's true, unfortunately. The Pew Charitable Trusts and others have done many studies which highlight the difference between our population vs. who actually gets out and votes. Studies have shown (repeatedly) that voters are older, whiter and substantially more affluent that our general population. I joke that "Working as a polling official is like spending the day at the Senior Center."

Young people just don't show up.

We pour a LOT of effort into voter registration programs and so forth on campus and we get little return for our trouble. But it's the same with non-college kids. Every election for many years, I have done the GOTV calling for the precincts in my town and the next one over. The lack of young voters is stunning.

STAGGERING.

But every presidential election year, you can read articles saying "THIS year, because of [insert name of candidate and/or program] the young people are going to turn out like never before."

And. It. Doesn't. Happen.

Darn it.

Even if we get young people to register, they simply don't show up on the big day. That whole "find your correct polling place, stand in line, show I.D. and yes, today's the only day" concept? It just doesn't work for them.

Check out this article:

U.S. Census figures show that voters ages 18 to 24, though still the smallest voting bloc, have shown larger gains in both registration and participation since 2000 than any other age group.

Always remember Statistics 101: if one young person votes this year, and next year two young people vote, that's a "100 PER CENT INCREASE IN YOUNG VOTERS!!!"

I remember seeing SEVERAL blog posts to the effect of "Robin Weirauch is going to win because of all of the young people at BGSU." Uh --no. The campus precincts had THE lowest turnout of any precinct in Wood county, again.

It's one of those "chicken or the egg" corundums. Young people (correctly) say "politicians don't speak to my generation!!!" And the pols respond with "Why should I?" My daughter is fired up for Obama, but it'll be a few years before she gets to cast a ballot...

I was one of those first young voters in 1972 and if, in fact, there is a wave of young voters this year, it'll be GREAT.

But I just don't see it happening.