Bennett: Republicans Unlikely to Regain Control of U.S. House of Representatives

Coverage in the Columbus Dispatch today of the retirement announcement by Rep. Dave Hobson (R-Springfield) contains this interesting comment by Ohio Republican Party Chair Robert Bennett:

[Hobson's] decision also might have been influenced by the likelihood that Republicans will have a difficult time taking back the House next year.

"I think if he thought there was a better than even chance of taking the House, Dave would have stayed around," Bennett said.

Bennett attributes the sentiment to Hobson, but I think it is pretty clear that Bennett agrees. If he did not, I think he would have said it differently, and also would mention trying to persuade Hobson not to retire for that reason.

National political prognosticators like Robert Novak, Stuart Rothenberg, and CQPolitics have been saying that the climate is very unfavorable to the GOP and their prospects of retaking the House are slim. However, those pronouncements are generally accompanied by the caveat that the election is still far away and conditions can change quickly. Also, the GOP faithful are hoping that a potential presidential bid by Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) will resuscitate their party's fortunes by energizing the Republican base in districts all across the country. Accordingly, it comes as a surprise to hear such a bleak assessment from the very heart of the Ohio Republican Party.

Chairman Bennett can be remarkably candid. At a joint public appearance with Ohio Democratic Chair Chris Redfern last year, I heard Bennett refer to the GOP incumbents in many of Ohio's safely Republican districts as "idiots." (The context was a discussion of the harm caused by gerrymandering that produces districts weighted to one party or the other, so that candidates are safely elected and re-elected based on party affiliation alone.) I suspect that he is being equally frank in his statement about the likely outcome of next year's Congressional election.

ADDENDUM: Of course, weighing heavily in the balance is public reaction to the SCHIP override vote that is to take place on Thursday. Stuart Rothenberg has a post on his blog today titled, "Have the Republicans Picked Another Losing Fight on SCHIP?":

The Republicans’ circular firing squad is now assembled. All that’s left is for someone — President Bush, House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) — to yell the appropriate command: “Fire!”

With their House and Senate caucuses deeply divided, Republicans have one week to figure out exactly how they are going to avoid a public relations — and a political — disaster. How can they minimize the damage from the president’s veto of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program bill?

Rep. Hobson voted in favor of the SCHIP bill. GOP insiders are very worried that upholding the President's veto of the popular program will seal their fate next fall. This could be part of the writing that Bennett and Hobson apparently see on the proverbial wall.

Cross-posted at Wide Open.