2010: Let's Go Horse Racing!

NOTE: A correction has been made in the piece below, as an astute reader points out that Republican Treasurer candidate Josh Mandel actually has a fundraising edge on incumbent Kevin Boyce. The projection has been altered to reflect that reality. -BLC

By most accounts (and judging by historical trends), the 2010 election may well be a bumpy one for Democrats. Current projections have Democrats losing around 20 seats in the House of Representatives, several governorships, and a Senate seat or two.

For Ohioans, the stakes couldn’t be higher. In addition to races for the Governor’s mansion and the first open Senate election in Ohio since John Glenn retired, our state will elect an entirely new slate of executive branch leadership (including Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor). Combined with the first House elections since Democrats retook the majority in 2008 (and the little matter of the Apportionment Board), these races make 2010 an unusually important mid-term election.

With that in mind (and putting on my lawyer hat), I’d like to make a few assumptions arguendo about Democratic prospects and strategies in 2010. Let me make this clear: this in NO WAY means I have insider sources at ODP, and is not meant as reporting. This exercise is conjecture, and but one of many scenarios the party could face in building on the gains we made in 2006 and 2008 and move the progressive agenda in Ohio forward.

That said, let’s dig in…good news first.

Despite the hubbub within Democratic circles regarding whether Jennifer Brunner or Lee Fisher should be tabbed to take up the progressive mantel in the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich, the most recent polling available has Fisher beating presumed Republican candidate Rob “T-1000” Portman by 8 points, with Brunner similarly positioned at a 6 point advantage. Though trends this early in a contest can be skewed by a great many factors (including the low-level expenditures each campaign has made and the correspondingly low level of public awareness of the campaign), these numbers bode well for a Democratic victory next November. Portman’s ties to the Bush Administration (his service as W.’s Budget Director chief among them) continue to prove a potent drag on his numbers in polling. Even given the negative overall climate, this seat looks to be one of our best bets for gains in 2010.

In the 2008 election cycle, Democrats picked up 3 Congressional seats in traditionally Republican districts (John Boccieri in Northeast Ohio, Mary Jo Kilroy in greater Columbus, and Steve Driehaus in Cincinnati). Two of those candidates (Kilroy and Driehaus) face rematches with their 2008 opponents (“Steves” Stivers and Chabot, respectively). While Kilroy faces a difficult reelection battle (her stances are marginally more liberal than those of her district generally, and the third party candidate whose presence wounded Stivers’ efforts is likely out for 2010), the relative conservative stances of Boccieri and Driehaus will hold them in good stead in their centrist districts (D+1 and R+4 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index). In a mid-term election, even a net loss of one seat (which is in no way guaranteed) in a state like Ohio bodes well for the party nationally, and could be considered a “win” in an expected adverse climate.

The governor’s race is a different matter. Despite enjoying a 25 point lead in polling as recently as February, Gov. Strickland now stands on precarious ground for an incumbent with an edge of only 6 points and an overall support figure under 45%. While it’s true that Strickland’s numbers may be artificially deflated by the stagnant economy and the present health care debate, it must be cause for concern for Democrats. That said, this race still leans Dem at this point (the incumbency advantage is a strong one, and one assumes with projected continued economic recovery and the end of the health care debate Gov. Strickland should be in a relatively stronger position to start the new year).

For the remainder of the races we’ll discuss here, polling at this point in the process is scarce, and making sound determinations based on hard statistics is for that reason nearly impossible. That said, it is possible to project the conventional wisdom as it stands today, and what that might mean for Democratic prospects down ticket.

The best opportunity for a pickup of a statewide office for Democrats in 2010 is (by default) the Auditor’s office. As the only current statewide Republican office holder, Mary Taylor should be benefiting from ruling party fatigue and her status as a relative outsider. Yet, the most current polls available show her with an approval rating of only 5% (17% disapprove, and a staggering 78% have no opinion). The likely Democratic nominee, Hamilton County Commissioner David Pepper, is also a relative unknown. That said, however, his prolific fundraising prowess on the local level, clear support from the Democratic establishment, and centrist stances on most issues position him well to unseat the divisive and very conservative Republican.

In the race for Attorney General, incumbent Democrat Richard Cordray should face a tough challenge from former Lt. Gov. and Senator Mike DeWine. DeWine is sure to make the Marc Dann corruption scandal a focus of his campaign, and tout his long record of public service. Cordray, for his part, should be able to do a serviceable job of distancing himself from Dann (thanks in large part to the deft handling of the situation by Gov. Strickland and the party when that story broke), and can focus his campaign on a “new era” of Ohio leadership (subtly turning DeWne’s long record into a liability rather than an asset). This will likely be the most closely matched race of 2010, but at the end of the day Cordray’ youth, enthusiasm, and predominately positive campaign style will likely hold sway.

The greatest unknown quantity for 2010 is likely the race for Treasurer, pitting Cordray’s replacement Kevin Boyce against State Rep. Josh Mandel of Lyndhurst. On paper, this race should favor the Republicans. Josh Mandel is a relatively young “rising star” in the Ohio GOP, and won his seat in a heavily Democratic district in Northeast Ohio. Mandel also boasts a sizable financial advantage right now, with approximately $1.3M in the bank to Boyce's $486,000. For his part, Kevin Boyce has never won or run for election outside his native Franklin County, and his brief tenure as a placeholder Treasurer confers little in the way of an incumbency advantage. Though Boyce has been present on the Fair circuit this summer, he has yet to establish a more permanent presence. Count this race as "Leans Republican” for now, with the possibility of moving into the "Toss Up" column with improved messaging and/or fundraising from Kevin Boyce.

Presently, the race causing the most consternation in Democratic circles is the race to replace Jennifer Brunner as Secretary of State. With each passing day, the likelihood increases that State Rep. Jennifer Garrison of Marietta will be the Democratic nominee for this office (her endorsement today by the Ohio Teamsters being only the latest in a string of power-solidifying endorsements). Garrison will face off against uncontested Republican candidate and former Speaker of the Ohio House Jon Husted. Husted’s fundraising prowess, charisma, connectedness, and Teflon-like ability to avoid controversy have earned him the title “Slick Jonny” in certain Democratic circles, and make him an incredibly formidable candidate. As has been discussed ad nauseam in this and other forums, Garrison’s campaign has faced a backlash from the progressive Left for her stances on gay marriage, DOMA, and women’s choice rights. Attempts have been made in recent days to whitewash those stances, and the ultimate success or failure of her candidacy depends on the success of those efforts. Facing a gap in base enthusiasm and massive fundraising deficit, Garrison’s campaign has far to go to reach viability, and as of this writing this race is the Republican Party’s best chance for a pick up.

If the above proves true (an admittedly big “if”), the outcomes of elections in the Ohio House become the single largest determining factor in who controls state government (and the all-important Apportionment Board, which determines where district lines are and has the potential to create institutionalized party control for the next decade). Democrats won 7 seats in the 2008 election, gaining a 53-46 edge. Many Dems heading into that election expected a pick up of only 3 seats, and hoped for the 4th needed to re-take the majority. The “bonus” 3 seats, many claim, resulted from the wave of support for now-President Barack Obama. Obama is not on the ballot in 2010, prompting questions about the sustainability of those gains in an off year. While facially this sounds like a problem, further examination proves it to be a false concern. Of the seats gained in 2008, 6 were in what most concede are strong Republican areas (Reps. Pryor, Phillips, Pillich, Moran, Schneider, and Garland). Democrats won those seats largely by running on centrist platforms and economic issues (rather than more divisive social concerns), and in many cases out-performed Obama locally. While replacing the abnormally conservative Garrison in Marietta will prove a daunting task, Democrats are well positioned to hold gains elsewhere. The Ohio House majority is relatively safe.

(The Ohio Senate, frankly, isn’t worth discussion. The Republican edge here is huge, and excluding a combination sex/finance scandal involving the entire Republican caucus is unlikely to change.)

So, to summarize:

Likely Pickups: Senate, Auditor
Likely Holds: Ohio House
Lean Hold: Governor, Attorney General, 2 Congressional Seats
Lean Loss: 1 Congressional Seat, Treasurer
Likely Losses: Secretary of State, State Senate

Though admittedly these projections are speculative, they are at very least based in the conventional wisdom as it stands today. This outcome is generally positive for Democrats. Despite the potential loss of two important statewide offices, this alignment would preserve continued control of the state agenda and the Apportionment Board. These results would give Democrats an opportunity to draw Congressional and Legislative districts for the first time in over 20 years.

Obviously, much can change between now and November 2010. Still, the overall political climate in Ohio and in the vast majority of individual races will likely buffer Democrats in our state from the losses expected by most observers nationwide. There remains much work to do, but at a moment when inside baseball dominates the news cycle, it is important to remember Democrats have real reason for optimism. If we keep our eyes on the ball, there is little reason the progressive agenda in Ohio won’t continue to move forward through the next election cycle and beyond.

Contributor’s Note: We’ll revisit these projections intermittently throughout the election cycle, discussing what’s changed and what those changes mean for Democrats statewide. The contents of this projection are solely the opinions of its author, and do not reflect the position of OhioDaily, The Ohio Democratic Party, or any other group, nor do they constitute an endorsement of any particular candidate.